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      【中聯鋼早訊】央行等四部門發布關于金融支持粵港澳大灣區建設的意見

      2020-05-15

      今日早訊看點(2020年5月15日星期五)

      ——---宏觀要聞---——

      [國際方面】

      1、美東時間周四,美股盤初低開下探,觸底后持續上揚。截止收盤,道指漲377.37點,漲幅1.62%,報23625.34點;納指漲0.91%,標普500指數漲1.15%。歐洲主要股指全線收跌,德國DAX指數跌幅為1.95%;英國富時100指數跌幅為2.75%;法國CAC40指數跌幅為1.65%。國際油價大漲,WTI 6月原油期貨漲幅8.98%,報27.56美元/桶。布輪特7月原油期貨漲幅6.65%,報31.13美元/桶。

      2、德國財長肖爾茨表示,6月初將宣布經濟刺激計劃;

      3、美國勞工部公布的數據顯示,上周首次申請失業救濟人數達到298.1萬,之前一周為316.9萬。這是該指標在連續7周高于300萬后首次回落至300萬以下水平。該數字高于此前經濟學家預期本周申請救濟人數為270萬;

      4、美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)警告說,交易所、券商要做好應對商品波動的準備,某些交易可能出現負價格;

      5、日本首相安倍晉三表示,日本政府計劃在6月17日本屆國會會期結束前,通過第二份補充預算案,為緩解新冠疫情的進一步舉措提供資金;

      6、國際能源署發表月報表示,下調對2020年下半年的石油預期,需求將同比下降460萬桶/天;但國際能源署同時也表示,石油市場出現改善;

      7、特朗普稱9月前美國失業率不會低于10%;

      8、聯合國發布的《2020年世界經濟形勢與展望年中報告》顯示,受疫情影響,2020年全球經濟預期萎縮3.2%。2020年至2021年,全球經濟產出累計損失將達到8.5萬億美元,幾乎抹去過去四年的全部增長。報告警告,不要忽視生產性的投資,卻貿然采取大規模財政和貨幣的刺激措施,例如向金融市場注入數萬億美元流動性,導致股票和債券價格迅速回升;

      9、英國央行行長貝利發表講話,指出基于封鎖導致的經濟大幅下行,但央行購買的政府債券數量比本可以購買的要多得多。這次海量的購債計劃已經至少購買了2000億英鎊的政府債券,且應當會保持借貸利率維持低位;

      10、澳大利亞統計局發布數據顯示,4月份該國有近60萬人失業,系有記錄以來單月就業人數最大降幅。同時,失業率飆升整整一個百分點,至6.2%,是自2015年9月以來的最高失業率;

      11、信用評級機構穆迪公布,預計2020年全球汽車銷量將下降20%,超過此前預計的下降幅度(2.5%),該機構對全球汽車行業仍持“負面”展望;

      12、美國財政部發布數據顯示,新冠疫情造成政府支出上升、收入下降,美國4月份財政預算赤字升至創紀錄的7380億美元。2020財年(2019年10月1日至2020年9月30日)迄今預算赤字已攀升至1.481萬億美元。美國獨立研究機構聯邦預算問責委員會預計,到2020財年結束時,美國本財年預算赤字將超過3.8萬億美元;

      13、新西蘭政府宣布一項總額為500億新西蘭元(約合300億美元)的開支計劃,旨在拯救經濟特別是促進就業,因而也被稱為“就業預算”。根據新西蘭財政部預測,受新冠疫情和封閉措施影響,到今年9月,新西蘭失業率將從現在的4%上升到近10%;截至今年6月底的2020財年國內生產總值將下降4.6%。

      14、二十國集團貿易和投資部長支持貿易和投資工作組制訂的《二十國集團應對新冠疫情、支持世界貿易和投資的行動計劃》,行動計劃中指出,短期應對措施強調避免疫情防控對國際貿易造成不必要的障礙,提高貿易便利化和透明度,加強物流網絡的運作,支持中小微企業等;長期措施則包括支持多邊貿易體系,分享最佳做法,尤其是在全球危機時期,對擴大基本商品和服務的生產和貿易可采取的措施。

      [國內方面]

      1、人民銀行、銀保監會、證監會、外匯局近日發布《關于金融支持粵港澳大灣區建設的意見》,從促進粵港澳大灣區跨境貿易和投融資便利化、擴大金融業對外開放、促進金融市場和金融基礎設施互聯互通、提升粵港澳大灣區金融服務創新水平、切實防范跨境金融風險等五個方面提出26條具體措施;

      2、中共中央政治局常務委員會召開會議,會議指出,要實現產業基礎再造和產業鏈提升工程,鞏固傳統產業優勢,強化優勢產業領先地位,抓緊布局戰略性新興產業、未來產業,提升產業基礎高級化、產業鏈現代化水平。要發揮新型舉國體制優勢,加強科技創新和技術攻關,強化關鍵環節、關鍵領域、關鍵產品保障能力;

      3、商務部發布的數據顯示,4月份,中國實際使用外資703.6億元人民幣,同比增長11.8%(折合101.4億美元,同比增長8.6%)。同時指出,一批穩外資政策措施落地,中國著力加強投資促進和保護,外商投資信心不斷增強,一批重點外資項目陸續簽約落地,加之去年同期基數較低,是實現年內首次正增長的主要原因。取得這一成績并不容易。疫情對世界經濟和全球產業鏈產生了重大沖擊,近日美日等國鼓勵企業從中國撤離,一度引發中國是否會出現“撤資潮”的擔憂。高峰坦言,當前全球疫情形勢依然嚴峻,全球跨國直接投資仍然處于嚴重低迷狀態,今年吸收外資形勢依然嚴峻復雜,穩住外貿外資基本盤的壓力依然很大;

      4、國家發改委發布消息稱,截至5月13日,國內成品油價格掛靠的國際市場原油前10個工作日平均價格低于每桶40美元。根據《石油價格管理辦法》和《油價調控風險準備金征收管理辦法》有關規定,本次汽、柴油價格不作調整,未調金額將全部納入油價調控風險準備金,全額上繳中央國庫;

      5、農業農村部召開“三夏”農機跨區作業暨農業機械化工作部署視頻會議,就推動農業各產業機械化、東北黑土地保護性耕作行動、丘陵貧困山區機械化和農機購置補貼實施等農業機械化轉型升級重點工作作出了部署;

      6、四川省2020年政府工作報告中提到,加快“新三直”特高壓等重大項目的建設,即雅中-江西、白鶴灘-江蘇、白鶴灘-浙江±800千伏特高壓直流輸電工程。國網公司此前已將年度固定資產投資額調增為4600億元,業內人士預計,未來兩年,我國特高壓年新增建設數量將刷新歷史紀錄,輸配電設備需求有望接近500億元;

      7、財政部部長劉昆在《人民日報》刊文表示,新冠肺炎疫情對財政收入增長帶來巨大沖擊。今年一季度財政收入出現負增長,預計2020年全年一般公共預算收入將低于上年;同時還表示,積極的財政政策更加積極有為,通過適當提高赤字率、發行抗疫特別國債、增加地方政府專項債券規模、鞏固和拓展減稅降費成效等,有助于進一步推動供給側結構性改革,挖掘內需潛力,激發市場活力,培育內生動力,有效應對經濟運行中出現的短期沖擊和挑戰,實現經濟社會持續健康發展。

      8、 中華全國總工會新聞發言人、宣教部部長劉迎祥在北京表示,全總和各級工會按照保居民就業、保基本民生、保市場主體、保糧食能源安全、保產業鏈供應鏈穩定、保基層運轉的要求,突出做好穩就業工作,最大限度穩定企業用工、穩定就業崗位。

      9、中央國債登記結算有限責任公司發布4月債券市場風險監測報告顯示,債券市場杠桿率季節性回落。4月末市場總體杠桿率為1.11,環比下降0.05,同比持平。機構平均杠桿率高于2倍的有533家,占比5.67%,環比上升0.11個百分點;

      10、《河北省2020年工業節能與綜合利用工作要點》近日印發。今年河北省將深入實施綠色制造工程,強化工業節能診斷服務,加快新產品、新設備、新材料的推廣應用,提高資源能源利用效率,培育綠色經濟新增長點;

      11國內商品期市黑色品種夜盤漲跌不一,截至收盤,其中焦煤收跌0.75%,焦炭收漲1.29%,鐵礦石收漲0.15%,螺紋鋼收跌0.46%,熱卷收漲0.15%。

       

      ——---產業鏈信息---——

      ——--中國鋼鐵行業動態--——

      --協會動態--

      中國煤炭工業協會發布《2019煤炭行業發展年度報告》

      中國煤炭工業協會發布《2019煤炭行業發展年度報告》,報告顯示,2019年累計退出煤炭落后產能9億噸/年以上,全國煤炭消費量同比增長1%,全國原煤產量同比增長4.0%,全國煤炭凈進口增長6.3%。另外還分析了2020年1-4月煤炭經濟運行基本情況,展望了今后一個時期煤炭市場走勢。一是煤炭需求減少。一季度全國煤炭消費量8.7億噸左右,同比下降6.8%。二是煤炭供應大幅增加。一季度,全國規模以上煤炭企業原煤生產完成8.3億噸,同比減少約400萬噸。三是煤炭庫存增加。截至3月末,煤炭企業庫存為5500萬噸,比年初5380萬噸增長2.2%。四是煤炭價格明顯下降。截至5月6日,市場煤價格為475元/噸,比年初下降84元/噸,比去年同期下降142元/噸,跌破中長期合同價格綠色區間。五是經濟效益下降。一季度,全國規模以上煤炭企業營業收入4290.7億元,同比下降12.7%;實現利潤421.1億元,同比下降29.9%。初步預計,下半年,隨著“六穩”、“六保”工作穩步推進,擴大內需政策落地,工業和經濟增長速度將恢復到應有水平,煤炭總需求將會好于上半年。

      --鋼廠動態--

      1、加強銀企合作打造“產融結合”樣板交通銀行訪問中國寶武

      陳德榮指出,隨著供給側結構性改革的推進,中國寶武正在圍繞鋼鐵主業打造全新的產業鏈、供應鏈、生態圈,公司在金融服務上的需求進一步加大。中國寶武已經在B2B商業模式、區塊鏈等方面做出了探索,借助金融科技的手段為生態圈上下游企業提供金融支持。我們也愿意通過與銀行的合作,做好對中小微企業的服務,解決行業痛點。同時,中國寶武在“走出去”戰略實施、國內供給側結構性改革、進一步提升行業集中度以及城市鋼廠轉型開發等方面也有較大的金融需求,希望雙方能夠加強合作,實現互利共贏。

      2、河鋼唐鋼首批冷軋箱體用鋼成功下線

      日前,河鋼唐鋼與山西某公司合作開發的20噸1.5毫米高強度薄規格冷軋箱體用鋼TG700XT成功下線。該產品經下游用戶冷成型、焊接等工序加工后,將制成貨車箱體結構產品,用于載重汽車改裝行業。

      --鋼廠調研

      重點板材廠調價:

      單位:元/噸

      --中聯鋼調研

      【中聯鋼:澳洲鐵礦石月度發貨量統計】據中國聯合鋼鐵網最新統計,4月份澳洲主流鐵礦石發貨量約7556萬噸,環比減少124萬噸,同比增加261萬噸;發往中國約6092萬噸,環比減少119萬噸,同比增加64萬噸。其中粉礦5912萬噸,環比減少145萬噸,同比增加192萬噸;塊礦1644萬噸,環比增加21萬噸,同比增加78萬噸。

      分礦山來看,4月份,力拓發貨量約3021萬噸,環比增加75萬噸,同比增加21萬噸;發中國約2304萬噸,環比增加204萬噸,同比減少123萬噸;

      4月份,FMG發貨量約1523萬噸,環比減少125萬噸,同比增加72萬噸;發中國約1397萬噸,環比減少191萬噸,同比減少13萬噸;

      4月份,BHP發貨量約2495萬噸,環比微降5萬噸,同比增加185萬噸;發中國約2062萬噸,環比減少46萬噸,同比增加238萬噸;

      4月份,羅伊山發貨量約348萬噸,環比減少108萬噸,同比減少36萬噸;發中國約170萬噸,環比減少126萬噸,同比減少56萬噸

      4月份,PMI/ATLAS發貨量約169萬噸,環比增加39萬噸,同比增加19萬噸;發中國約159萬噸,環比增加40萬噸,同比增加18萬噸;

      【中聯鋼:巴西鐵礦石月度發貨量統計】據中國聯合鋼鐵網最新統計,4月巴西鐵礦石發貨量約2374萬噸,環比增加219萬噸,同比增加624萬噸,發往中國約1582萬噸,環比增加164萬噸。其中,分礦山發貨量,VALE發貨量約1845萬噸,環比增加222萬噸;CSN發貨量約215萬噸,環比增加62萬噸;英美資源發貨量約189萬噸,環比減少72萬噸;分品種發貨量,卡粉發貨量約1196萬噸,環比增加109萬噸;球團發貨量約170萬噸,環比增加20萬噸;巴粗發貨量約779萬噸,環比增加154萬噸;精粉發貨量約189萬噸,環比減少64萬噸。

      【中聯鋼:唐山高爐開工率】據中國聯合鋼鐵網最新統計,14日唐山165座高爐中共61座高爐檢修,容積為37630m³,占總容積的23.99%,開工率76.01%,環比增0.28%;個數開工率為63.03%,環比增0.61%;其中,剔除去產能和長期停產后的高爐容積開工率為89.04%,環比增0.3%。據本網不完全統計唐山及秦皇島地區鋼坯投放量大約5.65萬噸

      【中聯鋼:唐津霸三地帶鋼軋線開工率】據中國聯合鋼鐵網最新統計,14日唐津霸三地開工41條帶鋼生產線,開工率為34.45%,環比增0.8%。其中,唐山12條窄帶軋線開工,開工率約為35.29%,與上周持平;唐山17條232以上帶鋼線開工,開工率約為38.64%,環比增2.28%;霸州及天津兩地12條帶鋼線開工,開工率為29.27%,與上周持平。(黃真鋒 13681170848/柳丹陽15901008840)

      ——-每日鋼市視點-——

      --鋼材市場--

      【建筑鋼材】14日國內線螺價格繼續盤整運行,各地價格窄幅波動。主要城市螺紋均價為3632元/噸,與昨日持平,周環比降3元/噸。螺紋期貨主力合約收盤價3445元/噸,與昨日收盤價降19元/噸;較杭州中天螺紋市價3530元/噸貼水115元/噸。期貨繼續弱勢運行,但現貨市場成交表現則尚可。預計線螺價格呈窄幅震蕩運行,部分地區價格有望回升(沈全 010-57930530)

      【熱軋卷板】14日熱軋現貨價格普遍上漲,漲幅擴大。全國主要城市均價3510元/噸較昨日上漲9元/噸。上海3410-3430元/噸漲10元/噸,天津3450-3470元/噸漲20元/噸,樂從3480-3490元/噸漲20元/噸。今天華東,中南和華北地區多個城市均有10-20元上漲。主要城市現貨成交繼續好轉。熱軋期貨震蕩小幅上行,收盤3344小漲7漲幅0.21%。今天燕鋼中標價格較昨天再漲10元,超過上海當地現貨價格。15日期貨有較大數量的集中交割對華東現貨造成沖擊,預計價格會受此影響而走低。(史文飛010-57930519)

      【冷軋卷板】14日全國主要城市冷軋市場價格穩中小漲,冷軋板日均價為4029元/噸,日環比上漲4元/噸,周環比上漲54元/噸。黑色系期貨窄幅震蕩運行,冷軋市場價格穩中小漲,下游補庫意愿不大,市場成交逐漸轉淡,出貨表現一般。近日鋼廠檢修減產增多,產量增速放緩,有利于緩解供需矛盾,降低大幅下跌風險。從市場了解,目前部分商家為緩解資金壓力,出貨意向較強,但基于市場庫存延續下降,總體庫存壓力不大,市價仍有支撐,低價出貨現象不多。預計短期市場漲跌互現,小幅盤整運行。(王曉嬌 010-57930520)

      【涂鍍】14日全國主要城市1.0無花鍍鋅均價4347元(噸價,下同),環比昨日持平;全國主要城市0.3mm鍍鋅均價4270元,環比昨日持平;彩涂主要城市0.47彩涂均價今日5358元,環比昨日漲5元。黑色系期貨窄幅震蕩運行,涂鍍板材價格穩中有漲,鍍鋅板報價較為平穩,彩涂板個別地區上揚。據了解,近日市場成交逐漸轉淡,貿易商和下游客戶以消化手中庫存為主,繼續補貨意愿較差,對當前行情信心不足,謹慎觀望心態明顯。博興地區彩涂產線因環保問題導致的停產大多處于設備待驗收階段,預計一周內將復產,此期間彩涂板庫存得以消化,鍍鋅庫存有累積,對后市整體影響不大。目前市場處于僵持階段,價格漲跌空間有限。(劉東旭 010-57930525)

      【中板】14日中厚板上海16-20mm萍鋼價格3680-3700元/噸,天津天鋼3560元/噸,樂從柳鋼3820元/噸,價格整體平穩,高位運行。鋼廠:國內29 家中板鋼廠5 月中厚板計劃產量、日均產量環比、同比都在增加,特別是平均產能利用率已經達到95%以上,這也從側面可以反映中厚板的一個利潤和市場需求度。市場:整體成交情況一般,稀缺規格加價走貨順暢,其他規格暗降出貨尚可。庫存:全國31個城市中厚板庫存103.33萬噸,環比上周減少3.76萬噸,其中:東北地區周環比持平,華東、中南、西部地區庫存周環比下降,華北地區周環比上漲。從數字可以看出,各地區在按部就班的去庫存,基本保持四月的節奏。總結: 產量增加,產出端利空。需求旺盛,需求端明顯利多。短期內,全國中厚板價格依然維持高位震蕩行情。(裴菲010-57930514)

      【硅鋼】14日硅鋼市場繼續以穩為主,14日無取向硅鋼均價4700元/噸,較昨日持穩,取向硅鋼均價13900元/噸,較昨日持穩。由于主流鋼廠剛剛出臺完畢期貨價格政策,下游實際訂貨價格未定下來,所以當前各方均在觀望市場。目前市場資源到貨不多,商家觀望心態濃,出貨較謹慎。下游方面,今日詢價也不多,等待鋼廠更多的優惠政策。綜合來看,預計15日硅鋼市場將以企穩為主。(常波 010-57930518)

      【無縫管】14日國內無縫管市場售價平穩,成交一般。從全國24個主要城市區域價格來看,日均價4309元/噸,較昨持平,較上周同期下降30元/噸。今日管坯市場售價平穩,連鑄管坯資源較熱軋管坯仍較緊張,以致部分前期生產方坯的企業改產管坯,管坯售價也較前期顯堅挺。管坯行情的好轉致使無縫管企業多被迫跟漲,目前無縫管廠家出貨較一般,漲價幅度有限。無縫管市場多為消化庫存階段,商家多按需采購,積極出貨為主。預計后期無縫管市場有望止跌企穩。(李衛衛 010-57930631)

      --不銹鋼市場--

      13日LME鎳價在亞洲時段繼續上演窄幅震蕩行情,最終收在12260美元/噸,較前日收盤價漲10美元/噸(0.01%)。SHFE鎳期貨主力合約,收在10.12萬元/噸附近,與前日收盤價基本持平。SHFE不銹鋼期貨主力合約,其價格小幅下行;最終收于13420元/噸,跌85元/噸(0.63%)。

      鎳礦價格保持穩定,菲律賓1.5%鎳礦CFR均價在39美元/濕噸;價格依然堅挺,暫未有松動跡象。高鎳生鐵均價小漲至5元/鎳至985元/鎳附近,電解鎳現貨價格小幅上漲至10.1萬元/噸;二者價差收窄至30元/鎳以內。

      太鋼的日指導價格保持穩定,青山則未開出新盤。太鋼14日無錫地區冷熱軋不銹鋼指導價格與昨日持平。304冷卷基價14150元/噸,316L冷卷基價20100元/噸,321冷卷基價16200元/噸。304熱卷基價13550元/噸,316L熱卷基價19100元/噸,321熱卷基價15800元/噸。

      近兩日無錫市場成交逐漸轉淡,300系現貨市場報價有50-100元/噸的小幅下探,市場風向隱現轉跌跡象。201現貨價格受此前青山調漲價格的影響,繼續呈現穩中走高態勢。430冷軋價格保持平穩趨勢,市場以觀望為主。

      目前看來,不銹鋼市場價格有轉入調整階段的跡象。當前市場參與主體需要密切關注市場庫存,原料走勢以及鋼廠最新的營銷策略,以及時調整采購及建庫策略。(程波 010-57930673)

      --原料市場--

      【進口礦】14日鐵礦石期貨夜盤繼續高開,全天震蕩偏強運行,主力合約盤終報收647.5元/噸,上漲1.09%,成交量減33萬手,持倉量增1.4萬手。今日港口現貨市場早盤報價上調5元/噸,山東地區早盤報價PB粉680元/噸、卡粉820元/噸、金步巴粉615元/噸,山東地區盤終成交價為PB粉670/680元/噸、超特粉545元/噸;唐山地區早盤報價PB粉690元/噸、卡粉820元/噸、超特粉555元/噸,唐山地區盤終成交價為PB粉685元/噸、混合粉610元/噸。早盤現貨報價上調5元/噸,現貨市場活躍度一般,貿易商報盤積極性尚可,挺價意愿較強,鋼廠詢盤情緒較昨日有所好轉,整體以按需采購為主。當前仍處鋼材需求旺季,鋼材庫存去化仍在進行,鋼廠在利潤的支撐下生產積極性較高,增產意愿較強,鐵礦石日耗保持高位,短期看鐵礦石需求相對堅挺;供給方面,港口庫存不斷去化,庫存量已處歷史低位,港口資源整體偏緊,尤其巴西礦短期到貨偏少,價格較為堅挺。綜合看來,短期鐵礦石價格以震蕩偏穩為主。(劉聰 010-57930682)

      【國產礦】14日國內鐵精粉市場維持強勢,內蒙包鋼鐵精粉采購價上漲20元,其他精粉產區報價暫時不變,預計短期內價格仍有上漲空間。另據調研顯示,近期包鋼招標外購燒結用精粉干基含稅價格為800元/噸,高品位球團用鐵精粉干基含稅價格830元/噸,低品位球團用鐵精粉干基含稅價格760元/噸。近半月招標25萬噸,其中燒結用精粉15萬噸,高品位造球精粉6萬噸,低品位造球精粉4萬噸。(諸葛毅 010-57930676)

      【焦炭】14日焦炭市場持穩運行,山西準一級含稅出廠1550-1600元/噸。今焦化提漲范圍再擴大,下午河北焦企提出明日漲價50元/噸,鋼廠尚未回應,目前鋼廠焦炭采購需求增加,利好焦炭價格上漲。山西地區除孝義限產外,河津地區焦化廠亦有小幅限產,對整體供應影響不大。今傳山東焦化以煤定產的政策即將出臺,按照耗煤及產能兩個指標執行。產能及耗煤指標要求相對較嚴格,且指派督導組進行督查。此消息對焦炭價格有一定強力支撐。目前焦炭供應呈下降趨勢,鋼廠需求則陸續增加;加上山東以煤定產的消息刺激,第二輪焦炭落地或很快實現。(劉鳳霞15010177915)

      【焦煤】14日國內焦煤價格弱勢回落,山西低硫主焦煤1290-1350元/噸不等。臨近兩會,產地多數煤礦尚未接到停、限產通知,多數煤礦維持正常生產,煤礦開工負荷較高,前期部分限產的煤礦近期也逐步提產,原煤供應仍穩中增加。洗煤廠方面,獨立洗煤廠因銷售壓力大采購原煤較為謹慎,精煤庫存略有回落。下游焦化廠簽單仍不積極,整體需求仍較差。綜上所述,煉焦煤走勢仍以弱勢回落為主。(劉鳳霞15010177915)

      【鋼坯】14日全國鋼坯市價小幅拉漲10元/噸,唐山地區報3160元/噸,江蘇地區3240-3280元/噸,東北3160元/噸,成交表現一般較可。雖然近期黑色期貨受外盤下行及5月合約交割期將至影響表現不佳,但現貨市場基于供需缺口局面支撐,廠商心態多顯堅挺,故一旦下游需求放量,價格勢必拉漲。綜合目前行情考慮,鋼坯市場仍呈現窄幅堅挺的行情。(邱磊 13582548705)

      【廢鋼】14日廢鋼市場漲跌互現,華北地區部分鋼廠上調廢鋼采購價格,漲幅20-100元/噸不等;華東江蘇、安徽地區少數鋼廠下跌20-30元/噸。目前華東地區市場重廢不含稅2100-2420元/噸,唐山地區主流重A2450-2530元/噸。近日部分廢鋼供貨商恐跌心態漸起,加快出貨速度,鋼廠到貨情況明顯有所改善。華東、西南地區少數電爐廠因成本壓力已有減產操作,廢鋼存在下行風險。但是目前部分鋼廠仍有補庫需求,多以持穩收貨為主。預計短期廢鋼市場整體持穩,部分根據自身到貨及庫存情況窄幅調整。(史李陽 010-57930504)

       

      ——---國際鋼市風云---——

      1.穆迪撤銷美國AK鋼鐵公司的所有評級

      2020年5月13日 - 穆迪投資者服務公司("穆迪")撤銷了對AK鋼鐵公司(AK Steel)7.625%到期票據的評級,2023年到期的7.5%的票據,到期的6.375%的票據,2027年到期的7%的票據和IRB的評級。由于信息不足,無法維持信用評級,評級被撤銷。AK鋼鐵于2020年3月13日被美國克利夫蘭(Cleveland Cliffs)收購。今后不會提供獨立財務報表。

      2.鋼鐵制造商薩爾茨吉特預計2020年虧損將超過1億歐元

      法蘭克福(路透社)-德國第二大鋼鐵制造商薩爾茨吉特(SZGG.DE salzgitter)周三表示,由于冠狀病毒大流行對其業務構成壓力,預計2020年稅前虧損將大幅虧損,很可能超過1億歐元(合1.09億美元)。

      3.美國軌道交通為汽車、煤炭和鋼鐵以及鐵路現狀預示目前嚴峻的形勢

      美國目前監測到,貨運和鐵路運輸是實時了解經濟內部情況的主要手段之一。美國鐵路協會(AAR)公布每周數據顯示,截至2020年5月9日的一周,美國鐵路運輸量較去年同期下降22.1%。這一消息顯示了運輸業的嚴峻形勢,也向其他幾個行業傳遞了一遍。當天,美國三大鐵路公司的股價均走低。

      4.拉美鋼協:拉丁美洲鋼鐵產量持續下降

      拉美鋼協表示,在本次全球和區域性的經濟危機中,拉丁美洲鋼鐵業一直在遭受負面挑戰。地區內的各個鋼鐵公司不得不停減產以調整風險。分國家來說,墨西哥第一季度的GDP同比收縮了2.4%,這是自2009年第三季度以來的最大降幅,其工業和建筑業產出減少了3.8%。此外,汽車產量同比也下降了8.5%,出口量下降7%;巴西三月份的工業產出月環比下降了9.1%,與前三個月相比,2020年第一季度下降2.6%,是自2018年第二季度以來最大的降幅;阿根廷3月制造業產出月環比收縮0.9%,同比下降6.4%,國內汽車和水泥行業幾乎全部停產。2月份,拉美地區的鋼鐵表觀消費量同比減少了2.5%,環比下降7%。阿根廷和墨西哥是受影響最嚴重的國家。據此,拉美鋼協預測地區內每個國家的表觀鋼材消費量降幅約13.8%,降至目前的5540萬噸。

       

      ——---CusteelDaily---——

      --Steel market--

      [Construction steel]: On 13 May, domestic rebar prices continue to maintain the consolidation of the main operation, East China prices slightly weakened. The average price of threads in major cities was 3632 yuan/tonne, down 1 yuan/ton from yesterday, up 15 yuan/tonne per week. The closing price of the main contract of thread futures was RMB3464/tonne, the same as yesterday's closing price, and 134 yuan/tonne was compared to the market price of Hangzhou Zhongtian thread 3530 yuan/tonne. Futures after the night rally price dive, today to maintain a low run mainly, the overall spot transaction than yesterday has weakened, afternoon quotations have weakened signs. It is expected that tomorrow's screw prices will maintain a weak operation, prices may be slightly lower overall. (Shen Quan 010-57930530)

      [Hot-rolled roll]: On 13 May,  hot-rolled spot price is generally strong but the change is small. The average price of major cities in China was 3501 yuan /tonne, up 2 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Shanghai 3400-3420 yuan / ton stable, Tianjin 3440-3450 yuan / ton stable, Le from 3460-3480 yuan / ton up 10 yuan / ton. Spot trading in major cities was slightly better than yesterday. Hot-rolled futures were up, closing up 4.12 percent at 3,337. Today Yangang's bid price was 10 yuan higher than yesterday. The overall trend of spot prices since this week is strong, but the price change is small, both supply and demand are building strength, short-term prices will still run slightly volatile. (Wenfei Shi 010-57930519)

      [Cold-rolled coil]: On 13 May, major cities in the country cold-rolled market prices rose steadily, cold-rolled average price of 4025 yuan / ton, up 4 yuan / ton per day, up 87 yuan / ton per week. Among them, the Northeast, Central and South China region rose significantly, Shanghai market price Angang 1.0 cold roll 3900 yuan / ton rose 10 yuan / ton; Today cold rolling market in some parts of the still maintain the upward momentum, according to traders feedback, the transaction is not ideal, downstream demand slightly weak, mainly in the early procurement of resources need to digest time, the recent continued replenishment intention is weak. After a series of pull-ups, the market optimism weakened, turned to cautious wait-and-see-oriented, the market still bearish expectations. Short-term market volatility is expected to stabilize. (Xiaojiao Wng 010-57930520)

      [Coating]: On 13 May, the average price of 1.0 flowerless galvanized in major cities nationwide was 4347 yuan/tonne, flat from yesterday, the average price of 0.3mm galvanized in major cities nationwide was 4270 yuan/tonne, flat from yesterday, and the average price of 0.47 color coating in major cities was 5353 yuan/tonne today, flat from yesterday. Black system futures night high down, coated plate prices continue to rise power shortage, more to maintain a smooth operation. Boxing sheet resource price correction 10-20 yuan / ton, mainly by the local environmental protection impact, color coating line large area stop maintenance, galvanized manufacturers shipped limited, inventory pressure increased. Upstream hot volume supply is reduced, and prices continue to rise, so that coating manufacturers profit reduction, production will decline than the previous period, which will slow down production growth, conducive to easing the contradiction between supply and demand, to prevent a sharp decline in prices. Overall, the current market uncertainties are more, manufacturers are currently more concerned about the macro-policy aspects of the two sessions, before the price will not be large fluctuations, is expected to be mainly small shocks in the near future. (Dongxu Liu 010-57930525)

      [Mid-plate]: On 13 May, China-Thick plate quote: Shanghai 16-20mm Ping steel price 3680-3700 yuan / ton, Tianjin Tiangong 3560 yuan / ton, Le Cong Liugang 3820 yuan / ton, overall stability, with few down. Today, overall trading situation of the national board in general, scarce specifications to increase the price of goods smoothly, other specifications dark down shipments can still. From the market feedback point of view, the vast majority of current lying resources from steel mills last month's production, The overall output in April is small, uneven specifications is inevitable, so it seems that the short-term market specification shortage situation is more difficult to significantly improve, high medium plate prices still have strong support, in the later large number of resources to supplement, the national mid-plate price may present a high volatility market. (Fei Pei 010-57930514)

      [Silicon steel]: The average price of non-directional silicon steel on the 13th was 4700 yuan/tonne, which was stable compared to yesterday, and the average price of silicon steel was 13900 yuan/tonne, which was stable compared to yesterday. Today's overall steel price rise is weak, futures performance is also general, and then transmitted to the silicon steel market is also flat. The market price of non-orientation silicon steel changed little, some merchants after the previous increase of 20-50 yuan / ton after the beginning began to wait and see, is still waiting for the steel plant orders. Downstream, home power plants began to negotiate with the steel mills order concessions, is still in the game, it is recommended that merchants operate carefully, waiting for the market. Orientation silicon steel because of the steel mill direct supply ratio is high, the market circulation is small, coupled with the steel mills introduced price policy for the flat, so basically stable-oriented. Overall, it is expected that in the short term the silicon steel market will be mainly stable. (Bo Chang 010-57930518)

      [Seamless tube]: On13 May,  domestic seamless tube market prices stable in the middle of the down, transactions in general. From the price of 24 major cities in the country, the daily average price of 4309 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton from yesterday, down 30 yuan / ton from the same period last week. Today, the price of pipe blank market is stable, is now statistics 10 tube blank factory cast tube blank in May planned production of about 300,000 tons, down about 40% compared to the same period last year, so the market cast tube blank resources are less, so that Jiangsu area cast tube blanks flow to Shandong. Although limited, but enough to see that the current Shandong pipe billet production is difficult to supply the needs of local pipe factories. With the late Shandong pipe factory gradually resumed full production, cast pipe billet volume or more nervous. It is expected that the chance of a steady rise in the late tube billet market will increase. Today seamless pipe factory prices temporarily remained stable, shipping situation in general, late pipe factory or face high costs and weak demand embarrassing situation. The seamless tube market is expected to be supported by costs, with a downward trend likely to be hampered. There is the possibility of stabilisation in the latter stages. (Weiwei Li 010-57930631)

      [Stainless steel market]

      On the 13th, LME nickel edged lower in the Asian session in a narrow swing, eventually closing at $12,270 a tonne, down $15/tonne (0.01%) from the previous day's close. SHFE nickel futures main contract, its price fell below 100,000 yuan / ton, and finally closed near 10.11 million yuan / ton, the previous day's closing price is basically the same. SHFE stainless steel futures main contract, its price after a small recovery, finally closed at 13505 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton (0.52%).

      Nickel prices remained stable, with the average price of CFR at 1.5 per cent of nickel mines in the Philippines at US$39 per wet ton, mainly due to the fact that the main Philippine nickel mining producing areas have begun to produce mines in an orderly manner. The average price of high nickel pig iron stabilized near 980 yuan/nickel, and the spot price of electrolytic nickel fell by 0.24 million yuan/tonne (2.33%) at 10.06 million yuan/tonne.

      Taigang and Qingshan stainless steel factory prices steadily rising, of which Qingshan rose higher than Taigang. Taisteel 13 Wuxi area hot and cold rolled stainless steel guide price, its short-term trend appeared differentiation. The base price of each line of hot roll remained stable, 430 cold volume base price is the same as the previous day's price, 300 series cold volume base price rose 100 yuan / ton. Among them, 304 cold volume base price of 14150 yuan / ton, 3016L cold volume base price 20100 yuan / ton, 321 cold volume base price of 16200 yuan / ton. Qingshan 304 hot-rolled narrow band re-opened, up 300 yuan / ton;

      Today Wuxi market 304 hot and cold rolling spot price steady in a small decline, there is no significant correction, mainly by the steel mills strong willingness to support the price. However, according to market feedback, the transaction continued to weaken, the basis of spot prices have loosened. Especially in the last two days SHFE stainless steel futures main contract price and LME nickel price impulse can be obviously insufficient, the price appeared a moderate correction. Coupled with the weak downstream demand, the final price of stainless steel to temporarily suspend the rise, but because the spot resources are not abundant, the correction range is limited.

      At present, it seems that stainless steel prices will be adjusted by a certain amount to fully digest the recent increase. But when the market ushered in a new rise factor, it still has a certain amount of room for improvement.(Cheng Bo 010-57930673)

      --Raw materials market--

      [Imported ore]: On 13  May,  iron ore futures opened high overnight, the whole day volatility strong operation, the main contract closed at 645.5 yuan / ton, up 2.14%, the volume increased by 350,000 lots, the position increased by 35,000 lots. Today's port spot market early quotation increase of 5 yuan / ton, Shandong region early quotation PB fines is 675 yuan / ton, Carajar fine is 815 yuan / ton, Jinbu ba fine  is 610 yuan / ton, Shandong region final transaction prices for PB fine are  668/670/671/672 yuan / ton, Super special fine are 540/541 yuan / ton; Tangshan area early quotation PB fine is  685 yuan / ton, Carajar  fine is fines is 815 yuan / ton, super special fines is  555 yuan / ton, Tangshan area end-of-price pb fines is  680 yuan / ton, mixed fines is  607 yuan / ton. Early spot price increase of 5 yuan / ton, trade business market enthusiasm is still good, strong willingness to price, steel mill inquiry sentiment in general, the transaction is mainly concentrated in the low-cut Australian powder and block ore. At present is still in the peak steel demand season, steel inventory de-mining is still in progress, steel mills under the support of profits production enthusiasm is higher, the willingness to increase production is strong, iron ore daily consumption remains high, short-term iron ore demand is relatively strong; Overall, the short-term iron ore price is dominated by volatility. (Cong Liu 010-57930682)

      [Domestic mine]: On 13 May,  domestic iron concentrate powder market stable in the strong, some areas of iron concentrate fine prices have risen. Hebei Zunhua iron fine  price rose 8 yuan, moved to the west up 24 yuan, moved up 10 yuan; Liaoning Jianping fine price rose 10 yuan, Benxi, Liaoyang rose 20 yuan; Shanxi traditional confrontation, Lingqiu fine powder price rose 10 yuan. In addition, the purchase price of some steel mills in northern Hebei increased by 10-20 yuan. According to our research shows that the main reason for the price increase is two: First, since May, downstream real estate and infrastructure demand for steel, steel mill production situation than in April has been larger. Second, affected by the previous outbreak, the current level of refined powder stocks in steel mills is generally low, the current willingness to replenish the stock is stronger. It is expected that this week the domestic market will continue to maintain the current level of steady and strong, price to stability-oriented. ( Geyi Zhu  010-57930676)

      [Coke]: On 13 May, coke market stable operation, Tangshan quasi-first-level tax-bearing to the factory 1750-1770 yuan / ton, Shanxi quasi-first-level tax-bearing factory 1550-1600 yuan / ton. Shanxi coking plant increase is still more positive, other areas of coking plant temporarily wait and see; Downstream steel mills for price increases still have not responded, the recent high-speed road congestion phenomenon, steel mills coke arrival in general, and steel mills blast furnaces started to pick up, the demand for coke procurement increased. Port spot quotation is strong, traders procurement normal, port inventory decline. To sum up, coke prices in the supply of normal, demand has been released under the positive support, to maintain a stable and good operation. (Fengxia Liu15010177915)

      [Coking coal]: On 13 May,  domestic coking coal prices weak fall, transactions still did not improve. Shanxi Liulin region low sulfur main coking coal S0.8 quote 1310 down 40 yuan / ton, other regions mainstream report 1300-1350 yuan / ton. At present, downstream sign-off is still not active, more to maintain small single procurement-based, recent low-sulfur coking coal continued to fall, downstream procurement to maintain a wait-and-see. Imported coking coal, the price of hard coking coal in Australia recently 123.5 us dollars / ton, an increase of US$2 / ton, compared with domestic coking coal still has a certain price advantage. With the resumption of customs clearance at the port, the import of coal resources increased, transactions in general. Under the constraint of increasing inventory pressure and weak downstream procurement demand, coking coal prices are still weak and falling. (Fengxia Liu15010177915)

      [Steel billet]: On 13 May, the price of steel billets in most parts of the country showed a rise, ranging from 10-60 yuan/tonne, of which Tangshan reported 3150 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu reported 3240-3270 yuan/ton, and Northeast 3150 yuan/tonne, the overall transaction was generally more affordable. Recent lying of futures, many shocks, it is difficult to give spot favourable support. The current billet resources are more than less than the state of demand, coupled with the recent limited import resources to Hong Kong, the pressure on domestic billets is not obvious, so manufacturers are more willing to bargain. However, taking into account the continuous pull-up, downstream demand gradually slow, lack of upward momentum, so a comprehensive view of the short-term billet market or a small firm market. ( Lei Qiu 13582548705)

      [Scrap steel]: The scrap steel market rose and fell on the 13th today, the price increase of steel mills mainly concentrated in East and North China, the increase of 30-80 yuan / ton range; At present, the East China market heavy waste does not include tax 2100-2420 yuan / ton, Tangshan region mainstream heavy A 2450-2530 yuan / ton, southwest region electric furnace plant heavy waste 2270-2370 yuan / ton. At present, the arrival situation of steel mills has not significantly improved, some of the low inventory of steel mills still have the demand for replenishment, short-term scrap prices have some support. However, independent electric furnace plant is in a loss-making state, the southwest region electric furnace plant has been operating at a lower price, waste steel continued to rise power is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term scrap market is running steadily in the middle of the consolidation, and the late stage should be alert to the downwind. (Liyang Shi 010-57930504)

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